Understand the idea
Expected value combines outcomes weighted by their probabilities. It is a long-run mathematical average under assumptions, not a promise for the next attempt.
Read expected value carefully
Expected value combines outcomes weighted by their probabilities. It is a long-run mathematical average under assumptions, not a promise for the next attempt.
Inside this edition
One topic. 3 useful perspectives.
3 sections
Context
Put it into practice
For a hypothetical 50% chance of gaining 10 and 50% chance of losing 12, compute 0.5×10 + 0.5×(-12) = -1 per attempt.
Know the limits
If probabilities are unknown or unreliable, the calculated expected value is not reliable either.
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